Forecasting
“How far ahead should we forecast, and how?”
Daily, by segment, 90 days out and refreshed weekly. Unconstrained demand first, then the constraints.
School RM · Revenue Management
Rate is decided by the forecast. A weak forecast makes every price a guess.
Forecasting, pricing, inventory controls, overbooking, groups, distribution and the weekly rhythm that holds them together, for hotels and restaurants.
1 · What we do for you
Ways we work with you.
Revenue reviews
A diagnostic of forecast accuracy, pricing structure, segmentation, channel cost and the revenue meeting, with a ranked list of actions.
Revenue strategy and pricing
Rate ladders, fences, value-adds and a pricing policy the team can apply without asking.
Distribution and digital
Channel mix, cost of acquisition, the direct booking journey and the OTA contract.
Interim revenue leadership
An experienced revenue lead in the chair while you hire or rebuild the team.
2 · What we know
The questions people ask, each answered with its conclusion first.
Pricing and fences
“How do I charge different guests different prices fairly?”
Fence every rate with a condition the guest can see: advance purchase, length of stay, cancellation. A discount without a fence is a price cut.
Inventory controls
“When should I stop selling cheaper rooms?”
When the expected value of the higher-paying guest who has not booked yet exceeds the lower rate in hand. That is the protection level.
Overbooking
“How many rooms should I oversell?”
Enough that the cost of an empty room equals the expected cost of walking a guest. Set it from your own no-show history.
Groups and displacement
“Should I take this group?”
Only if it pays more than the transient business it displaces, after its own costs and the meeting space it uses.
Segmentation and mix
“Which guests should I chase?”
The mix that maximises profit per room, not occupancy. Know each segment’s rate, length of stay, spend and cost to acquire.
Distribution and digital
“Are the OTAs too expensive?”
Compare the full cost of each channel, including the brand website’s marketing. Use OTAs for reach in low demand and close them in high.
The rhythm and organisation
“Who decides price?”
One revenue lead, one weekly meeting with sales and the general manager, and decisions recorded with a reason.
3 · What you can use
Free tools. Your figures stay on your screen.
RM · ToolLive
Protection level
How many rooms to hold back for higher-paying guests.
Open →RM · ToolLive
Overbooking
How many rooms to oversell, and the walks it implies.
Open →RM · ToolLive
Group displacement
Whether a group pays more than the business it displaces.
Open →RM · ToolLive
Funnel and channel cost
Cost per acquisition, return on ad spend and the true cost of each channel.
Open →RM · ToolLive
VASREV
The Revenue Desk app for hotels and restaurants.
Open →4 · What you can watch
Short films with the transcript beside them.
Film 1 · Recording
The protection level
Why the last room should not go to the first caller.
Film 2 · Recording
Overbooking without fear
Your no-show history, turned into a number.
5 · What you can read
Courses, papers and cases.
Revenue Management 101
Forecasting, pricing, protection, overbooking and displacement, with calculators.
Read →Market Segmentation
Segments, sources and channels: the mix that sets a hotel’s rate.
Read →Digital Marketing for Hotels
The booking journey, channel cost, funnel arithmetic and a launch checklist.
Read →Restaurant Revenue Management
RevPASH, table mix, meal duration and demand periods, with a calculator.
Read →